Scenario 1: An All-Out Invasion
I suppose I'll have heard about it far ahead of time. You can't get that many troops and that much equipment into position without alerting someone. So, let's assume that China slowly amasses troops and various vehicles in Fujian and other places across the Taiwan Strait, all the while hurling more and more threatening rhetoric at Taiwan.
The two biggest questions being 1) what Taiwan will "do" to trigger this situation, and 2) what its response will be. I put "do" in quotation marks because I don't think Taiwan needs to do anything. China's internal situation will reach a certain level of instability, and for those in power the means of addressing this instability will be the invasion of Taiwan.
I think that people in Taiwan flatter themselves in thinking that their political decisions have such a large effect on China. I doubt that it matters much whether they vote DPP or KMT, or whether they waive their own flag or the flag of Chinese Taipei. Communist China has always claimed Taiwan, the only deciding factor in attempting to reclaim it is China's internal disposition.
Hell, the other day I heard two Mainland news broadcasters claiming the Philippines as their own. In the end the conventional reasons don't matter as much as people think they do. It comes down to China's domestic situation, which comes down to the CCP's confidence in its hold over the people. This in turn comes down to demographics, the economy and intrigues within the communist party.
As for Taiwan's response, I really have no idea. Is this before or after the next presidential election? Are the DPP or KMT in power? What's going on with the economy at that point? How much warning has Taiwan had? How dedicated is the average Taiwanese person to preserving Taiwan's autonomy?
Could the U.S. trigger an invasion of Taiwan? Maybe, but the U.S. is still one of China's biggest trading partners, and I don't think either side is ready to decouple just yet. Congressmen will pledge their support for Taiwan, China will send boats and aircraft across the Strait, and around and around we go. In my opinion one thing that might trigger a Mainland Chinese invasion is some kind of internal collapse within the U.S. itself, something so severe that China might figure it could take Taiwan off the board without serious consequences.
But in the event, what would I do? Well, that depends on a lot of factors, not least of which is the amount of time between threats and military action. Part of me wants to say I would take my wife and children and leave Taiwan, but it would be extremely difficult for my wife and I to leave her parents and other family members behind. I really don't know what I would do in this situation, but I do know that I wouldn't fare well in communist China.
And it could be that I'd get kicked out anyway. This blog is evidence enough against me.
Scenario 2: China decides to blockade the island.
This, I assume, would occur much faster than an all-out invasion. China need only get its boats and planes into position, prevent traffic to and from the various ports, and there you go.
What would a blockade look like? It's impossible to know. Perhaps it might be attempted just before the next presidential election, in order to sway the vote toward the CCP's obvious ally, the KMT. Perhaps it would accompany some other event, such as Taiwan's President signing an international agreement, or a truly relevant international organization offering Taiwan a place at their table.
A shorter blockade would be bad enough, but a longer blockade, perhaps lasting several weeks or months, would be terrifying. During such a blockade China would try to dampen or completely obstruct the island's communications with the outside world, thus pressuring Taiwan's elected government into any number of terms favorable to the Mainland. In a way this would be worse than an all-out invasion, in that an invasion would clearly signal the enemy's positions on land, sea and air.
Imagine if bombings were a part of this strategy. You or I would be sitting in some bomb shelter, not knowing when the bombing would cease or what was really going on.
And who can really say whether such bombings would break Taiwan's resolve, or make its citizens more determined to resist?
I've heard certain foreign residents boast that they would help defend Taiwan, and that they would join a resistance movement provided it would have them. I can't help but smile a little at this. Would they really man the battlements? Would they be ready to sacrifice their lives?
Given sufficient warning I'd probably leave. Again, I can't say for sure, but I'm not a citizen here and I feel like that fight is better left to Taiwan's citizens. If Taiwan wanted me in that fight (I flatter myself that it would), I think its government would have made it easier for me to become a citizen in the first place. I enjoy my life here, and I can't see myself returning to the States, but just the same I feel like it wouldn't be my fight.
But of course I'm not the only person making decisions in my family. My wife and I would need to have a serious conversation about that should the situation arise.
Here's hoping it never does.
Scenario 3: The World Keeps On Turning
What would I do? Why I'd continue to lurk here of course, quietly waking up each day, quietly going to work, quietly spending time with my friends and family, and quietly saving money.
Years ago I read an interview with a Mainland businessman about the Cross-Strait situation. He had this to say: "Taiwan? China? Who cares? Everybody should just get rich!"
I think his point of view bears consideration. His attitude probably isn't that unique in Taiwan or China, even if few would go so far as to vocalize it. Only those furthest from the possibility of fighting really want war. The rest of us, living out our quiet lives, have better things to do.
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