Are They Coming? Are They Here?

Scenario 1: An All-Out Invasion

I suppose I'll have heard about it far ahead of time.  You can't get that many troops and that much equipment into position without alerting someone.  So, let's assume that China slowly amasses troops and various vehicles in Fujian and other places across the Taiwan Strait, all the while hurling more and more threatening rhetoric at Taiwan.

The two biggest questions being 1) what Taiwan will "do" to trigger this situation, and 2) what its response will be.  I put "do" in quotation marks because I don't think Taiwan needs to do anything.  China's internal situation will reach a certain level of instability, and for those in power the means of addressing this instability will be the invasion of Taiwan.

I think that people in Taiwan flatter themselves in thinking that their political decisions have such a large effect on China.  I doubt that it matters much whether they vote DPP or KMT, or whether they waive their own flag or the flag of Chinese Taipei.  Communist China has always claimed Taiwan, the only deciding factor in attempting to reclaim it is China's internal disposition.

Hell, the other day I heard two Mainland news broadcasters claiming the Philippines as their own.  In the end the conventional reasons don't matter as much as people think they do.  It comes down to China's domestic situation, which comes down to the CCP's confidence in its hold over the people.  This in turn comes down to demographics, the economy and intrigues within the communist party.

As for Taiwan's response, I really have no idea.  Is this before or after the next presidential election?  Are the DPP or KMT in power?  What's going on with the economy at that point?  How much warning has Taiwan had?  How dedicated is the average Taiwanese person to preserving Taiwan's autonomy?

Could the U.S. trigger an invasion of Taiwan?  Maybe, but the U.S. is still one of China's biggest trading partners, and I don't think either side is ready to decouple just yet.  Congressmen will pledge their support for Taiwan, China will send boats and aircraft across the Strait, and around and around we go.  In my opinion one thing that might trigger a Mainland Chinese invasion is some kind of internal collapse within the U.S. itself, something so severe that China might figure it could take Taiwan off the board without serious consequences.

But in the event, what would I do?  Well, that depends on a lot of factors, not least of which is the amount of time between threats and military action.  Part of me wants to say I would take my wife and children and leave Taiwan, but it would be extremely difficult for my wife and I to leave her parents and other family members behind.  I really don't know what I would do in this situation, but I do know that I wouldn't fare well in communist China.

And it could be that I'd get kicked out anyway.  This blog is evidence enough against me.

Scenario 2: China decides to blockade the island.

This, I assume, would occur much faster than an all-out invasion.  China need only get its boats and planes into position, prevent traffic to and from the various ports, and there you go.

What would a blockade look like?  It's impossible to know.  Perhaps it might be attempted just before the next presidential election, in order to sway the vote toward the CCP's obvious ally, the KMT.  Perhaps it would accompany some other event, such as Taiwan's President signing an international agreement, or a truly relevant international organization offering Taiwan a place at their table.

A shorter blockade would be bad enough, but a longer blockade, perhaps lasting several weeks or months, would be terrifying.  During such a blockade China would try to dampen or completely obstruct the island's communications with the outside world, thus pressuring Taiwan's elected government into any number of terms favorable to the Mainland.  In a way this would be worse than an all-out invasion, in that an invasion would clearly signal the enemy's positions on land, sea and air.

Imagine if bombings were a part of this strategy.  You or I would be sitting in some bomb shelter, not knowing when the bombing would cease or what was really going on.

And who can really say whether such bombings would break Taiwan's resolve, or make its citizens more determined to resist?

I've heard certain foreign residents boast that they would help defend Taiwan, and that they would join a resistance movement provided it would have them.  I can't help but smile a little at this.  Would they really man the battlements?  Would they be ready to sacrifice their lives?

Given sufficient warning I'd probably leave.  Again, I can't say for sure, but I'm not a citizen here and I feel like that fight is better left to Taiwan's citizens.  If Taiwan wanted me in that fight (I flatter myself that it would), I think its government would have made it easier for me to become a citizen in the first place.  I enjoy my life here, and I can't see myself returning to the States, but just the same I feel like it wouldn't be my fight.

But of course I'm not the only person making decisions in my family.  My wife and I would need to have a serious conversation about that should the situation arise.

Here's hoping it never does.

Scenario 3: The World Keeps On Turning

What would I do?  Why I'd continue to lurk here of course, quietly waking up each day, quietly going to work, quietly spending time with my friends and family, and quietly saving money.

Years ago I read an interview with a Mainland businessman about the Cross-Strait situation.  He had this to say: "Taiwan?  China?  Who cares?  Everybody should just get rich!"

I think his point of view bears consideration.  His attitude probably isn't that unique in Taiwan or China, even if few would go so far as to vocalize it.  Only those furthest from the possibility of fighting really want war.  The rest of us, living out our quiet lives, have better things to do.

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Thoughts on the Last Election

I'm not what you'd call a political guy, though I do make an effort to stay informed.  I might not know all the names, I might not know all the faces, but I like to think that I know what's going on in a general way, if not in every particular.

So yeah, the election of county magistrates, city mayors and other positions was concluded last Saturday, and by now we've all had to time to contemplate what these elections might mean for the present and future of Taiwan.

The election results can be viewed on the Central Election Commission's website.  Applause to them for making these results available in English.  I didn't see any voter's guides available in English, but maybe voters had to specifically request them.  Making election information available in a variety of languages helps ensure a vibrant democracy, and the Election Commission has made great strides in this area.

Let's start with the party votes.  As you can see from the website, it was a big win for the KMT.  The Kuomintang, or Chinese Nationalist Party, won 50.03% of the popular vote against 41.62% for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).  As a result President Tsai Ying-wen offered to resign as head of the DPP, though this was largely a ceremonial gesture.  In third place was the Taiwan People's Party, which received only 1.49% of the vote.

I can't see this "KMT resurgence" as the damning critique of DPP rule some are making it out to be.  I think the DPP just got too complacent after Tsai Ying-wen's landslide reelection, and some of the candidates they were offering were uninspired choices.  Chen Shih-chung, who was running opposite the KMT's Chiang Wan-an in Taipei City, might have seemed like a solid choice, but he's also the face of COVID in Taiwan, and thus a living reminder that the last two years sucked.

As for individual city and county mayors and magistrates I have less of an opinion.  I wasn't following the news regarding Chiang Wan-an, "Chiang Kai-shek's grandson" that closely, though I did often wonder at things he said in the news.  In the office of Taipei City Mayor he's not likely to wield enormous power, though the position this puts him in with regard to the next presidential election is worrying.  As a foreigner I'm of course not allowed to have opinions on the Cross-Strait Situation, the KMT vs. the DPP, or other facets of local politics, but let me just say that the KMT's Ma Ying-jeou was my least favorite Taiwanese president, and that's taking into account all the shenanigans Chen Shui-bian was guilty of. (1)

The elections in south Taiwan fall more into the province (heh heh) of this blog, as do the elections in Taitung County, where I used to live and which I often discussed here.  In south Taiwan the DPP is still going strong, winning the top posts in Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung.  Chou Chun-mi is the new Pingtung County Magistrate, though it was a very close race between her and the KMT's Su Ching-chuan.

Taitung is another story.  In Taitung the KMT's Yao Ching-ling won a second term by a large margin.  I credit this win to three factors: 1) longstanding local loyalty to the KMT, 2) the fact that the KMT is seen as "the development party" in that area, and 3) the additional fact that the DPP's candidate, Liu Chao-hao, was another uninspired choice by the DPP.  Though still a County Councilmember, Liu Chao-hao has zero charisma, and he's been losing the office of County Magistrate to KMT candidates for years.

On a still more local level, down to the area where I live, the KMT's candidate for County Magistrate Su Ching-chuan actually won Hengchun Municipality, which puts it at odds with much of the rest of Pingtung County.  The County Councilor position doesn't quite fall along township/municipality lines, but Lin Cai-ying, running unaffiliated for Constituency 15, won the "Highland indigenous" office.  KMT candidate You Shih-jing won the position of Hengchun Municipality Mayor, and Liao Wen-zhi, running unaffiliated, is the new Village Chief of Sigou Village. 

Hengchun Municipality voted for lowering the voting age to 18, though the Constitutional Referendum was vetoed by Taiwan as a whole.

And that was the last election, at least as far as I'm concerned.  No more trucks blaring loud music and entreaties for votes next to my house, no more strangers knocking on my door distributing leaflets, and no more fireworks and political demonstrations blocking my route home from school every day.  At least for now, that is.  One day - a day that will come all too soon - there will be another election, and in the weeks leading up to that election we'll all have to endure the noise, the distractions, and the inconveniences that every election inevitably engenders.

Democracy in Taiwan is alive and kicking.  I just sometimes wish isn't wasn't kicking as loudly, or as insistently, as it often does.

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NOTE: The spellings of candidates' names in this entry conform to those used on the Central Election Commission's website.  In many cases these are not the spellings I would use.

1. I'm joking of course.  Hopefully that was obvious.  Taiwan isn't part of China... yet.

Bringing Back the 80s (In a Bad Way)

Are you old enough to remember the feeling?  Let's say early- to mid- 80s, before Reagan left office and after Carter bowed out.  It wasn't the 80s everyone thinks they remember, but rather a more troubled time, when the Cold War felt both very close and very real.

Many grow nostalgic for those "simpler" times.  Shows like Stranger Things capitalize on that sense of nostalgia.  But if you were alive back then, and if you were old enough to understand the evening news, you'll remember watching it and feeling afraid.  You'll remember things like Star Wars (not the movie) Soviet incursions into Afghanistan, and threatening words from the Kremlin.  You'll remember thinking that nuclear war was an immediate possibility.

If, like me, you're a fan of the Thrash Metal released around that time, you'll also remember a lot of nuclear-themed songs.  In the wake of New Wave of British Heavy Metal bands like Judas Priest and Iron Maiden, the 80s saw the development of two diametrically opposed styles of music, both very indicative of the era.  On the one hand there was Glam Metal, which in a sense represented 80s excess, and on the other hand there was Thrash, which eschewed the party aesthetic in favor of faster tempos, more distortion and social commentary.  That social commentary also had a Cold War component, with songs like "Fight Fire with Fire" and "Peace Sells" being two prominent examples.

The band name Megadeth, by the way, is an intentional misspelling of "megadeath," a term encompassing one million deaths, usually in relation to nuclear warfare.  Another famous thrash band, Nuclear Assault, formed shortly after Megadeth.

So yeah, the prospect of nuclear annihilation was on our minds at the time.  I can remember watching movies like The Day After, and wondering how close we were to the end of civilization as we knew it.  Would cooler heads prevail?  Or would someone in Washington D.C. or Moscow press the button?  None of us knew where things were headed, and it wasn't until the end of the decade, with the fall of the Berlin Wall, that this widespread fear was finally - or so we thought - put to rest.

Reading the headlines in 2022 triggers a similar anxiety.  In 2022 Russia's attempting to annex Ukraine, and is apparently willing to use nukes to speed up the process.  North Korea is firing missiles over Japan, and is probably selling weapons to Russia to use against Ukraine.  China, a relative newcomer to the game of nuclear brinksmanship, hasn't mentioned nukes yet, but they continue to threaten Taiwan, and they are part of North Korea's supply chain.  It all seems quite insane when you think about it, almost as if the Cold War never ended.

Has it ended?  I really don't know, but I do know that the world we live in seems increasingly divided between communist (or seemingly communist) and non-communist (or seemingly non-communist) states, with COVID-19 and climate change accelerating the process.  And while COVID and climate change don't excuse Russia, North Korea and China from their actions, they do put these actions into their proper context.  And yes, there are also other, historical and political reasons for what we read in the news, but I doubt matters would have advanced to this point in the absence of both pandemics and unpredictable weather.

The 80s Part 2: Electric Boogaloo.  Back then we would have talked about the ozone layer and AIDS alongside whatever the communists were doing, and there are probably other parallels I haven't thought of yet.  In 2022 there are probably also loud, controversial bands that speak to such concerns, but if they're out there I've haven't heard them yet.  I really hope they're out there.  Some kid like I was, back in the 80s, probably needs them.

As for where I'm at with all of this, I just hope that all of those in power can think about the next generation, and the kind of world this next generation is going to inherit.  Is this world going to be something dystopian, like Escape From New York or The Road Warrior?  Or is it going to be something more positive, like Back to the Future II or 2010?  All I know is that in 2022 I often find myself feeling a familiar sense of anxiety.  In the presence of that anxiety I begin to wonder if we've truly progressed beyond the frightening political alignments of forty years past.

Russia, communist or not, still wants to gobble up adjoining countries.  China seeks to exert a kind of ethnic authority over surrounding nations.  North Korea, not really a concern in the 80s, only replaces countries in the Middle East which would have filled that role.  No, North Korea doesn't have OPEC to manipulate, but their lack of reliance on international institutions is even more worrying.

In 1980 I was five years old, and by 1989 I was going from junior to senior high school.  There are certainly things I miss about that decade.  I miss the movies, I miss the comic books, I miss the toys, I miss the Thrash Metal.  But what I don't miss is that feeling of existential dread.  I can only hope that with the easing of the pandemic (outside of China at least) this sense of dread passes from the scene once more, to be forgotten alongside so many other unpleasant things.

I'm not the praying type, but I offer my best wishes for the health and prosperity of those living everywhere, all over the world.  Perhaps these disputes and acts of aggression will disappear once the world comes closer to the "normal" we all remember.  Perhaps one day we'll only be recalling these things through songs, and perhaps we'll be wondering why our parents and grandparents worried so much about them.

"What was the problem, really?" our grandchildren will say, "In the end it all turned out fine!"

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